Track Q's live probabilities

Spot where Q and market prices disagree. Follow Q's live probabilities as evidence changes, compare them with market prices, and inspect the reasoning behind the spread.

GeopoliticsUpdated 1m ago

US-Iran nuclear deal signed before Jun 30, 2026?

Quotient says NO 8%

Spread -21pt

Market says NO 29%

Why Q differs

Tehran's Hormuz-first sequencing forecloses a deal on the market's timeline.

Resolved calls

Paper-trading positions that have closed. Each position is sized at $100. Open positions are excluded from this count.

71 of 263 positions

Win rate

Share of resolved positions where Q's call ended in profit. Calculated as winners ÷ resolved positions.

80% across resolved markets

Portfolio return

Total paper P&L divided by capital deployed ($26,300 across 263 positions at $100 each). Reflects the full paper book, not annualized.

+9.9% paper trading ROI

Paper trades only · $100 per position · cumulative P&L plotted by publish date

Positions are paper-traded at $100 each. The line is the running sum of paper P&L, ordered by the date each position was published. No real capital is at risk.

Mar 28Apr 16May 5May 24Jun 12Position published-$1,000$0$1,000$2,000$3,000Cumulative paper P&L

Figures dated to Jun 13, 2026 · live values at app.quotient.social/performance

QuestionResolved

Quotient probability

Quotient's probability when Q published this call.

Polymarket probability

Polymarket's probability when Q published this call. Resolved markets settle at 0% or 100%.

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When there is no liquid market for a question, Q can still produce inspectable probabilities by reading evidence, assigning a forecast, and tracking updates over time. Read how the same method applies beyond prediction markets.