Put Q to work on open questions

Quotient reads public evidence and market prices to identify where risk is being misread before outcomes are known.

Latest report June 8, 2026 Expert Index · Iran

Whose Iran Calls Held Up?

Quotient evaluated 557 expert predictions from 130 public experts to measure who added signal before the outcome was known.

Finding

Credentials did not predict signal

Method

We publish the whole record

Forecasts are only useful when you can see how they were made. Every report keeps the question, evidence, probability, and outcome together.

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Question
What would resolve this

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Evidence
Primary sources, testimony, reporting

03

Probability
Q's call and reasoning

04

Outcome
Updates as the call resolves

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Market signals
Event-market signals where Q sees price misreading risk, timing, or resolution criteria.

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Custom forecast monitors
Private monitors for the questions your team is tracking, with Q's current probability, what changed, and scheduled briefings.

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Forecast data and API
Self-serve API access to Q's forecasts, with probabilities, evidence summaries, and update history.