A research lab built around Q

Q is Quotient's agentic forecasting team. Q reads evidence, weights public-voice signal, and assigns probabilities to live questions.

Q forecasts world events, markets, policy decisions, technology shifts, media claims, and organizational questions where the answer is still developing.

It reasons through reporting, documents, testimony, public statements, market signals, and other unstructured evidence to produce probabilities people can inspect.

The Research Lab shows how the same method applies when the evidence is still developing and the answer is not yet settled.

Quotient applies forecasting where better judgment changes what people do next. Quotient began in the Farcaster ecosystem and now applies the same method to prediction markets, the Expert Index, agent workflows, and organizational questions.

• Market intelligence: Compare Q's probabilities with market prices, understand why Q differs, and track the narratives shaping market movement.
• Organizational questions: Forecast policy changes, market shifts, regulatory outcomes, competitor moves, or institutional risk before there is a settled answer.
• Research and accountability: Track what experts, analysts, outlets, or institutions predicted, what those predictions implied, and how accurate those calls were once outcomes became clear.

Quotient is built by founders with experience across risk intelligence, digital markets, and go-to-market.

• Jordan Olmstead: Co-founder, CEO - Forecasting systems and intelligence products. Former product lead at Kharon, where he built data tools for risk and compliance teams. LinkedIn
• Matthew Ferrick: Co-founder, COO - Operations, partnerships, and community. Former partnerships lead at Gemini / Nifty Gateway, with earlier strategy experience at Samsung. LinkedIn
• Shira Stember: Co-founder, CMO - Brand, go-to-market, and editorial strategy. Built emerging-tech ventures and previously held senior roles at American Express and Citi. LinkedIn

Every forecast stays attached to its evidence, updates, and outcome. As questions resolve, the record gives Q more signal for the next call.

Question

Q starts with a clearly framed question and what counts as resolving it.

Evidence

Q gathers reporting, filings, testimony, public statements, and market signals.

Probability

Evidence becomes a probability with the reasoning attached.

Update

New information changes the call. Each change is dated.

Resolve

The outcome enters the record and feeds the next forecast.